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Stop losing money to expired stock

Expired stock is an ordering problem before it is a shelf problem. How to order by the numbers, mark down in time, block what has expired and measure the waste, with a worked example.

By the CreekPOS team 3 min read

Stop losing money to expired stock

Every shop that sells food throws some of it away. The question is how much, and whether you know. Most owners guess "not much"; a month of honest records usually shows a figure worth a part-time salary. Our guide to FEFO and daily checks covers the shelf. This one covers the two ends that decide the waste: what you order and what you do in the last week of a product's life.

Order what sells, not what feels right

Over-ordering is the main cause of expired stock. A sensible order for each item comes from four numbers:

  1. How fast it sells: what went out in the last four weeks, divided by the days it was actually on the shelf. A day it was out of stock should not count, or a stock-out makes it look slow.
  2. What you have: on the shelf plus what is already on order.
  3. How long the supplier takes, and how often you order.
  4. A small safety margin.

A worked example: rice sells 6 a day. You have 18, nothing on order; the supplier delivers in 2 days; you want 7 days of cover and 1 safety day; it comes in cases of 12. You need 6 × 3 + 6 = 24 to last until the delivery, so order now. How much: 6 × (2 + 7) + 6 − 18 = 42, rounded up to whole cases: 48 (4 cases).

Two limits matter for anything with a date: no more than the shelf holds, and no more than sells before a typical shelf life. If milk keeps 5 days, ordering two weeks of milk is ordering waste.

Watch the last week

For each lot with a date, ask one question: will it sell out before it expires? If it sells 2 a day and you have 30 with 7 days left, about 16 will be left over. That is the moment to act, not the morning it expires.

  • Mark down in steps: for example 30 % off with 7 days left, 50 % with 2 days. The discount should apply to that lot only, show on the receipt, and come off a printable shelf label.
  • Return what your supplier takes back, under your agreed terms, before the date passes.
  • Block expired lots at the till. A cashier should not be able to sell an expired yoghurt by accident; a manager can decide the rare exception.

Measure the waste

Write off every expired item with its reason, and look at a waste report each month: written off versus returned, by category and by supplier. The five products you throw away most are your first five ordering decisions. The figure also tells you whether markdowns are working.

In CreekPOS

CreekPOS Online has smart reorder ("what to buy today", per supplier, each line with the reason above, into a purchase order you print, e-mail or send on WhatsApp) and expiry control (the near-expiry board with "will not sell out before expiry", markdowns you approve or put in force automatically, expired lots blocked at the till, the supplier return sheet, one-click write-off and the waste report). Both are switched on in Settings → Reorder and expiry, from the Retail plan. See retail and stock on the features page and the manual chapter.

This article is general information as of its date, not legal or tax advice. Rules change; check the official source or ask your accountant before acting.

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